It seems the New York Times decided to fill 2009’s quota for poignant, truthful reporting on the very first day of the year. Having published a surprisingly straightforward and touchingly personal account of the Cuban-American story, they can now return to their regularly scheduled brainwashing.
(The online piece is dated Dec. 31, but the article appeared in the NYT print edition yesterday.)
My friend over at Blue Collar Muse has made the Finalists list for the 2008 Weblog Awards in the category of Best Conservative Blog. It is well deserved, and I am just delighted for him.
When added to the joy of being married to the dazzling and intelligent Much Younger Trophy Wife, BCM’s cup surely overfloweth.
E!! is on hold until further notice.
My sister, Krista Lueth, is missing. She was last seen on Tuesday, Nov. 11, at her home in Lansing, MI near the intersection of Pennsylvania Ave. and Michigan Ave. She was reported to the police as missing this past Saturday, Nov. 15.
She is a student at Michigan State University; the school has been notified and is cooperating.
(updated since original post) Here is the Lansing newspaper story: http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20081118/NEWS01/811180342
For any who may be in her Facebook networks, this is her Facebook profile: www.facebook.com/people/Krista_Lueth/723027485
And MySpace: http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=69627212
This is an online alert that was posted over the weekend (includes a photo): www.powerfulintent.ning.com/profiles/blogs/missing-sister-can-you-help
The police are involved and are following every possible lead. If you know people in the Lansing, Michigan area please forward this to them. If you know anyone in the media willing to get the word out, please have them contact me via email (on my Contact page here).
If not, please pray.
Forgot to mention that Rove’s electoral map prediction was the closest of any I found in my internet and blogosphere travels. He called it perfectly with the exception of giving Indiana to McCain (so had called it 338 – 200). Impressive.
(If you know of a site, blog or map that had it 100% right, please let me know.)
I assume most have checked the state election results by now, so here are some random thoughts:
– With 28 seats in the Assembly, a majority in the Senate, and just a couple of Republican votes the Dems can override a veto by Governor Jim Gibbons. He is now officially a lame duck. Or, in light of the constant trouble and controversy surrounding him, maybe just plain lame.
– In light of the above, expect a tax hike in Nevada as legislators contemplate a budget shortfall of (at least) $250 million.
– My condolences to Senator Heck (R) who lost to Breeden by 801 votes. But, as Chuck Muth pointed out during this morning’s panel discussion on KNPR, Heck’s campaign ignored his advice to court the Libertarian active voting block (which by all counts was larger by far than Heck’s loss margin). A few calls and mailers to Libertarian types and who knows what could have been?
– Incumbent Senator Bob Beers (R) was outspent and outslimed by a Democratic machine that did not hesitate to twist, lie and libel. And somehow it didn’t seem to matter to voters that his opponent, Allison Copening, ducked most debate and interview opportunities throughout the campaign.
– I was dissatisfied with both Beers’ and Copening’s pre-election responses to my “what will you cut, or what taxes will you raise, specifically” question in re: to Nevada’s budget shortfall. Beers said we’d have to do one or the other (duh!) and Copening said she’d figure it out when she got to Carson City. These answers are not good enough. Voters have the right to know what their candidates plan to do before they cast their ballots.
– Congrats to Chad Christensen who is “my” Assemblyman. A lot of people thought he was done, including Jon Ralston.
– Memo to Senator Raggio: Please do what you can to convince your fellow senators to cut the budget and raise taxes as little as possible.
Karl Rove has called it for Obama. He’s got the electoral vote count totals at 338-200 because (he says)Obama wins in NV, CO, NM, MI, OH, FL, VA, PA, and NH while McCain only wins in MO, IN, and NC.
Of course, evil Republican genius* that he is, Rove could just be trying to lull Obama voters into a false sense of security (i.e. staying home).
*For those not aware, this is a liberal term of endearment for Rove.
Most people who follow election day results know that poll closing times drive news coverage throughout the afternoon/evening. Below are how the closing times fall (all times are Eastern) along with some notes. Electoral votes are in parenthesis where indicated.
6:00 – Most of KY and IN – Indiana is a battleground state this year.
7:00 – Remaining precincts in KY and IN + VT, half of NH, VA, SC, GA, FL – This is the “first wave” of election results. Kentucky (8), South Carolina (8), and Georgia (15) are red states. Vermont (3) is blue. Eyes are on Indiana (11), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), and Florida (27). I’ve seen polls in these states that have the candidates virtually tied and polls that have Obama up by 3 to 5 points. I predict FL and NC for McCain; not sure on NH and VA.
7:30 – OH, WV, NC – Ohio is huge with 20 electoral votes. West Virginia (5) is red, but North Carolina (15) is in play. I predict McCain will win NC, but Ohio is anybody’s guess. Obama could win without Ohio, but I’m not sure McCain can.
8:00 – ME (4), the other half of NH, MA (12), CT (7), PA (21), NJ (15), DE (3), MD (10), D.C. (3), MI (17), TN (11), AL (9), MS (6), IL (21), MO (11), SD (3), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34) - The battleground states on this list are NH, PA, MI, and MO. Mchigan will go blue. I think Missouri will go red. I would have called PA for Obama up until a week ago, but now I’m not so sure. PA is second in importance behind Ohio, and no matter what McCain can’t lose both of them and win the way things are looking.
8:30 – AR (6) – Arkansas is red.
9:00 – RI (4), NY (31), LA (9), WI (10), MN (10), parts of ND (3) and SD (3), NE (5), WY (3), CO (9), NM (5), AZ (10) – The only real question marks here are Colorado and New Mexico. All the polls say Colorado will go to Obama and the margin seems to make that likely. The race in New Mexico is closer. Strangely enough, the way these things work, McCain really needs New Mexico’s five electoral votes. (And I noted that he spent some time there today so his campaign concurs.) I ran quite a few scenarios earlier including one in which McCain won NH, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, and lost PA, MI, CO, NV, and NM…which resulted in a tie: 269 electoral votes each. Moving NM’s 5 to Obama’s column resulted in a 274-264 Obama win.
10:00 – IA (7), MT (3), ID (4), UT (5), NV (5) - Iowa is blue. The rest are red except Nevada which is in play this year. Based on registration rolls, many people are calling Nevada for Obama, but the predicted Dem wins in the primaries (for the same reason) didn’t happen. So, we’ll see.
11:00 – WA (11), OR (7), CA (55) – “Yawn”: The most boring poll closing since all are blue.
12:00 – AK (3), HI (4) – Alaska is red; Hawaii blue.
Tomorrow afternoon – when the polls have not yet closed and the exit polls are all we have to talk about - let’s not forget that the 2004 exit polls had everyone predicting an easy Kerry win.
Exit polling is not scientific. Someone stands outside the poll place and asks voters, “Will you tell me who you voted for?” People can answer or take a pass.
Historically, exit polls do tend to skew Democratic. I’ve heard various theories as to why: some say it’s the bias of the exit pollers; some say conservatives/Republicans tend to be more private so don’t share personal information as easily.
According to Yahoo! Finance, Nevada is behind only California, Arizona, and Florida in terms of total state budget shortfall.
Nevada’s budget gap is 16% of the total state budget or $1.2 billion.
Nevada has the worst foreclosure rate in the nation, and falling tourism and gambling revenues has slowed the economy dramatically.
A special legislative session in June resulted in budget caps and cuts, but it’s quite likely another special session will have to be called – after the elections in November.
Here’s a shot of Duane Lester and me at a New Media training/presentation at the Conservative Leadership Conference here in fabulous Las Vegas this past weekend.
Duane (one of the many geniuses over at All American Blogger) called me “major league cool” on their blog today so we are now BFFs.
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These bumper stickers are kind of fun. Pick one up for just $2.99 plus mailing costs.
E!! is going to be offline thru Sunday while I go have fun in my role as Media Liason for the Conservative Leadership Conference (and also try to catch a few panel discussions) here in fabulous Las Vegas.
I’m looking forward to meeting Michael Brodkorb, the mind behind “Minnesota Democrats Exposed” who has been chosen to receive the conference’s annual Blogger of the Year Award.
Also will be very happy to finally shake hands with Blue Collar Muse and the Much Younger Trophy Wife I have heard so much about, as well as with Eric Odom.
A few other speakers/attendees I hope to catch a word with (there are too many to name them all): WSJ writer and author John Fund, Paul Seidler of the Nuclear Energy Institute, Steve Miller of NPRI, instructor Michael Tanner of The CATO Institute, Grover Norquist and Sandra Fabry of Americans for Tax Reform, Joel Mowbray, Pat Toomey of the Club for Growth, Roger Hedgecock, Lt. Col. Allen West, Bob Barr, Richard Viguerie, Ward Connerly of the American Civil Rights Institute, Rich Galen of Mullings.com, Chris Simcox of the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps, Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin, NV GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, David Keene of the American Conservative Union, and AZ Rep. John Shadegg.
My friend Mike Connell, owner of Connell Outdoor Advertising Co., would like to let all Nevada’s candidates know he has billboard space available between now and the November elections. With tight races in a number of districts, it sure wouldn’t hurt to have some extra signage in some highly visible places around Nevada.
Email him at connellco@cox.net or give him a call at (702)795-0555 — and mention that E!! sent you!
And now for a serious look at this year’s campaign season (turn speakers on; page load time is worth the wait).
And now for a few Cons:
Politically speaking, it sort of undermines a large part of the case against Obama: inexperience, lack of credentials, lack of foreign policy and national security know-how.
She has never worked in D.C. so there will be a steep learning curve – and probably a few slip-ups. (Then again, McCain will make sure she has a great staff.)
And then to all those on the Right who have called the Obama candidacy an example of Tokenism, there’s this question: Would Palin would been picked if she were a man?
And the Unknowns:
How will the female thing play? The pro-choice feminists will all hate Palin, but the female Republican base might show up in never-yet-seen numbers. Bitter and disaffected Hillary supporters might vote for her out of spite. Or they might see her as a threat to Hillary in 2012 and decide they don’t want her anywhere near D.C.
(And what about the guys? Will men vote for her because she’s got great legs and is just waaaay better looking than Biden?)
Also, how will she do on the stump? Can she hold her own? Will she make any major gaffes (which will cause the opposition to Shriek and Point at her Inexperience)? Will Biden handle her well or come off looking like a bully when he goes up against her?
On the subject of my dismal (0-3) election prediction record:
Jack Pitney only got it one-quarter right with this prediction last year:
Republicans nominate Rudy Giuliani for president. To hold GOP women who might vote for Hillary and to stress his commitment to reform, Giuliani surprises the political class by picking Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton makes a move into GOP territory by picking Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Giuliani-Palin wins with 52 percent of the popular vote and 293 electoral votes.
All the news outlets were reporting it as I walked out the door at 7:30 a.m. Personally, I like the pick and think this is good news for the GOP. Here are some pros:
She’s a principled fiscal conservative who beat an incumbent by promising to cut government waste in Alaska – and did it. She slashed pork spending, cancelled hundreds of millions of dollars of unnecessary construction projects, and sold the gubernatorial private jet on eBay (for $2.7M).
She’s for responsible drilling. I heard a clip from a speech she gave on “the small sliver of coastal terrain” that is ANWR and how/why drilling could/should be done there and elsewhere. It was good.
She’s a social conservative and pro-life (but not rabid about it) which will energize the GOP base. She’s happily married and has five children, the most recent born in April (a Down Syndrome baby she gladly and willingly chose to have).
Any attacks on her lack of experience – she’s been governor for only two years – can be turned around: she has more senior executive experience than Obama, or Biden (or McCain, for that matter). Plus, she’s the #2 and not running for POTUS. Yet.
She’s plain spoken “regular folks” so should connect well with the middle class. And she’s got a fairly compelling personal story and family life: athlete, beauty queen, hunter, former professional fisher person (LOL), married her high school sweetheart, son about to deploy to Iraq.
On a more personal note, I like that she’s a Hockey Mom. (My brother played hockey for years, so we spent many winter weekends hanging around in Michigan and Canadian hockey arenas.) Not that it has anything to do with politics. Then again, someone who enjoys a fast-moving, hard-hitting, sometimes down-and-dirty sport like hockey must have a tough streak, right?
I’ll do some Cons later after I think more about it.
James Poulos has an interesting piece re: Veep picks up on Culture11 today. As a result of his column, and a few others I’ve read, I’ve revised my opinion about the Biden pick.
To say Biden is either a Terrible or Genius pick implies that the choice mattered, which – in this unique election year – it really did not.
Obama’s candidacy is so historic, his political chronicle so polarizing, and his persona so massive, that Biden is quite beside the point. Obama could have chosen just about anyone; November’s result will turn on other realities.
On the subject of delegates to the Republican national convention, a few readers (who don’t normally follow politics but are now perking up) have asked me what the stats from Nevada’s state caucuses were. You can view them here.
Romney got 51.1% of the vote; Ron Paul got 14.73%; and McCain got 13.75%.
So…what are you doing on September 18-21, 2008?
If your answer is “nothing, why?” then may I suggest that you attend the 2008 Conservative Leadership Conference at the Tuscany Suites Resort in Las Vegas? The event is being co-hosted by Citizen Outreach and Americans for Tax Reform. The Honorary Conference Chairman is Rep. John Shadegg of Arizona.
CLC is a yearly gathering of conservatives and libertarians focused on bridging differences and finding common ground in their mutual desire to limit government – as well as discussing the best political means of achieving that goal.
Your truly (yes, E!!) has been asked to be the Press Liason so I will be hanging around assisting the media (and anyone else in need) all weekend. I’d love to meet any/all of you so please stop by and say Hello if you can.
Confirmed speakers for CLC ’08 include (to name just a few):
* Bob Barr, Libertarian Party candidate for President
* Chuck Baldwin, Constitution Party candidate for President
* Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform
* Rich Galen of Mullings.com
* John Fund of the Wall Street Journal
* Richard Viguerie, author of “Conservatives Betrayed”
* Pat Toomey of the Club for Growth
* Talk-show host Roger Hedgecock
* David Keene of the American Conservative Union
* Ward Connerly of the American Civil Rights Institute
* Paul Jacob of the Sam Adams Alliance
* Former Congressman and talk-show host J.D. Hayworth
* Chris Simcox of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps
* Erick Erickson of RedState.org
* Matt Sheffield of Newsbusters.org
* Danny Vargas or the Republican National Hispanic Assembly
* Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute
Over the course of the weekend there will be an Exhibit Hall featuring a variety of conservative organizations and vendors, various policy panels and workshops, book-signings, “live” radio broadcasts, awards, keynote addresses, luncheons, BBQs, banquets, raffles, etc.
Saturday night’s gala banquet will be held at the Venetian and will feature the annual “State of the Conservative Union” address by a major conservative figure. (I know who they’ve invited and if he says Yes, you will Definitely want to be there!)
To find out more and/or register, click HERE or call (202) 558-7162.
Confession:
I love to predict political outcomes but so far have lacked the courage to post them on E!! Today, I shed the shackles of fear and take a stand with some predictions…
Obama’s VP pick will be Evan Bayh.
McCain’s VP pick will be Romney (who will run in 2012 when McCain decides one term was enough).
McCain-Romney will win easily in November.
Hillary will win her party’s nominiation in 2012 after saying something like this to the Dems, “Hey Dummies! Your arugula-eating, Maxim reading, Harvard grad Golden Boy got stomped in ’08, so stop messing around and nominate me.”
The Corner is speculating that Chet Edwards (not John) might be the pick. Not a good idea due to the possible name confusion; don’t think it’s gonna happen.
I think Obama should pick Hillary if he wants to have any chance of winning, but I’m not sure she would agree to take it or that he would be willing to tolerate her on the ticket – or in the White House on a daily basis.
Geraldine Ferraro was on Hannity last night and said there is “no way” Hillary will accept the VP spot under Obama. Others have said they think she would, if it were properly offered.
If I were a Hillary staffer, I would advise her to Just Say No to Obama and stick with the roll call vote at the convention, which even if she loses will remind people that she still has strong support in the Demcoratic base, and then in 2012 she can come back and say (to the Dems), “OK Dummies, your Golden Boy got stomped in ’08, so stop messing around and nominate me.”
Have you heard about the defiant posse of disillusioned GOP-ers that held an unsanctioned state convention in Reno this past Saturday? Organizers claim it was a lawful reconvening of the GOP’s recessed April 26 state convention in Reno (which was shut down prior to final voting). However, the party’s executive committee has set (and stuck by) a July 26 date to resume activity.
Depending on who you ask, the late April shut down was either (1) a tragedy of epic proportions because it was shaping up to be a national delegation with more backers for Ron Paul than John McCain, or (2) a proper procedural response because there were too few delegates to call a quorum (because the promised Ron Paul reps did not actually materialize on the convention floor).
State rules say roughly 800 total delegates are needed in order to obtain a convention quorum. We didn’t have them in April, and we didn’t have them this weekend either because the Ron Paul reps barely numbered 300. (And just for extra fun, we’re not sure how many of those delegates were credentialed since Paul organizers didn’t have the official delegate List with which to cross-reference attendees.)
Depending on who you ask, the Ron Paul backers (1) asked the GOP for the List and were refused, or (2) did not follow the proper procedure for obtaining the List.
Any-hoo, this weekend’s gathering of 327 was a pretty poor showing considering the Paul camp claims that they had “over 1,000” delegates teed up. Their response? The April convention did not have a quorum and was invalid – but this one counts because this weekend’s first order of business was to change the rules of quorum and (you guessed it) decide that 327 delegates was enough.
Ron Paul devotees say they will take their fight to be recognized as The Legitimate Convention all the way to September’s Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul and that they will appeal their case to the RNC and/or national convention committee. Many Paul backers have also said they will cast a write-in vote for the Texas congressman in November because McCain is closer to being a Democrat than a conservative.
They have my sympathy, as far as that goes, but all this Brouhaha brings us round to a familiar electoral quandary. Do you cast a principled vote for an Independent candidate who is closer to your (and your party’s) values but could also be the “spoiler” that leads to the election of the opposition? Or do you compromise and go with the safer bet to ensure we maintain at least some semblance of sanity in the White House?
In a swing state where President Bush narrowly won in 2000 and 2004, your decision could play heavily in the national election.
Your comments are welcome, because I’m still undecided myself.
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