The polls at Gallup and Reuters/Zogby had the race at an 11 point spread which is outside the margin of error so problematic.  ABC/Washington Post and CBS had Obama up by 9 which is just at the +/- 3 point margin of error. 

NBC/WSJ and IBD had a spread of 8 which isn’t bad, and CNN and FOX had the spread at 7 points which is/was close enough for me.

Source:  Newsmax

(If you know of a site, blog or map that had it 100% right, please let me know.)

– With 28 seats in the Assembly, a majority in the Senate, and just a couple of Republican votes the Dems can override a veto by Governor Jim Gibbons.  He is now officially a lame duck.  Or, in light of the constant trouble and controversy surrounding him, maybe just plain lame.

– In light of the above, expect a tax hike in Nevada as legislators contemplate a budget shortfall of (at least) $250 million.

– My condolences to Senator Heck (R) who lost to Breeden by 801 votes.  But, as Chuck Muth pointed out during this morning’s panel discussion on KNPR, Heck’s campaign ignored his advice to court the Libertarian active voting block (which by all counts was larger by far than Heck’s loss margin).  A few calls and mailers to Libertarian types and who knows what could have been?

– Incumbent Senator Bob Beers (R) was outspent and outslimed by a Democratic machine that did not hesitate to twist, lie and libel.  And somehow it didn’t seem to matter to voters that his opponent, Allison Copening, ducked most debate and interview opportunities throughout the campaign. 

– I was dissatisfied with both Beers’ and Copening’s pre-election responses to my “what will you cut, or what taxes will you raise, specifically” question in re: to Nevada’s budget shortfall.  Beers said we’d have to do one or the other (duh!) and Copening said she’d figure it out when she got to Carson City.  These answers are not good enough.  Voters have the right to know what their candidates plan to do before they cast their ballots.

– Congrats to Chad Christensen who is “my” Assemblyman.  A lot of people thought he was done, including Jon Ralston.

– Memo to Senator Raggio:  Please do what you can to convince your fellow senators to cut the budget and raise taxes as little as possible.

MSN’s map (a pretty good one – interactive and clickable and fun) is showing Indiana with McCain at 50% and Obama at 49% with 10% of precincts reporting. 

Kentucky is coming in as expected; it will be red.

I’ll be blogging all night but it won’t be every 5 minutes.  I think The Corner will be blogging pretty frequently, so I suggest going there and checking back here maybe every 30 to 60 minutes.

What an honor.

Now if only my prediction is wrong and McCain wins handily, I can go home and really enjoy that bottle of champagne that’s chilling in the fridge.

Of course, evil Republican genius* that he is, Rove could just be trying to lull Obama voters into a false sense of security (i.e. staying home).

*For those not aware, this is a liberal term of endearment for Rove.

6:00 – Most of KY and IN – Indiana is a battleground state this year.

7:00 – Remaining precincts in KY and IN + VT, half of NH, VA, SC, GA, FL – This is the “first wave” of election results.  Kentucky (8), South Carolina (8), and Georgia (15) are red states.  Vermont (3) is blue.  Eyes are on Indiana (11), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), and Florida (27).  I’ve seen polls in these states that have the candidates virtually tied and polls that have Obama up by 3 to 5 points.  I predict FL and NC for McCain; not sure on NH and VA.

7:30 – OH, WV, NC – Ohio is huge with 20 electoral votes.  West Virginia (5) is red, but North Carolina (15) is in play.  I predict McCain will win NC, but Ohio is anybody’s guess.  Obama could win without Ohio, but I’m not sure McCain can.

8:00 – ME (4), the other half of NH, MA (12), CT (7), PA (21), NJ (15), DE (3), MD (10), D.C. (3), MI (17), TN (11), AL (9), MS (6), IL (21), MO (11), SD (3), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34) - The battleground states on this list are NH, PA, MI, and MO.  Mchigan will go blue.  I think Missouri will go red.  I would have called PA for Obama up until a week ago, but now I’m not so sure.  PA is second in importance behind Ohio, and no matter what McCain can’t lose both of them and win the way things are looking.

8:30 – AR (6) – Arkansas is red.

9:00 – RI (4), NY (31), LA (9), WI (10), MN (10), parts of ND (3) and SD (3), NE (5), WY (3), CO (9), NM (5), AZ (10) – The only real question marks here are Colorado and New Mexico.  All the polls say Colorado will go to Obama and the margin seems to make that likely.  The race in New Mexico is closer.  Strangely enough, the way these things work, McCain really needs New Mexico’s five electoral votes.  (And I noted that he spent some time there today so his campaign concurs.)  I ran quite a few scenarios earlier including one in which McCain won NH, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, and lost PA, MI, CO, NV, and NM…which resulted in a tie:  269 electoral votes each.  Moving NM’s 5 to Obama’s column resulted in a 274-264 Obama win.

10:00 – IA (7), MT (3), ID (4), UT (5), NV (5) - Iowa is blue.  The rest are red except Nevada which is in play this year.  Based on registration rolls, many people are calling Nevada for Obama, but the predicted Dem wins in the primaries (for the same reason) didn’t happen.  So, we’ll see.  

11:00 – WA (11), OR (7), CA (55) – “Yawn”:  The most boring poll closing since all are blue.

12:00 – AK (3), HI (4) – Alaska is red; Hawaii blue.