Thought we’d start the day here on E!! with a little light-hearted commentary on Russia’s violent invasion of a free, democratic Georgia during this, the first week of the Olympics. I’ve read quite a few op-eds about it this morning and here is my three cents:
The Russia-Georgia cease-fire brokered by France’s president is being honored by Russia, sort of. Fewer shots were fired once it was in place, but the Russian army kept moving moving and now occupies Gori. Georgia has been cut in two and although the road to the capital (Tbilisi) is open it’s obvious that Putin is intent on pursuing his objectives through continued military pressure.
Putin’s agenda seems pretty clear. In addition to detaching South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia so they can be absorbed into Russia and, oh yes, completely obliterating the Georgian army…Putin aims to remove Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and replace him with someone more agreeable to Putin’s agenda.
How will Putin attempt to achieve this last aim? By continuing to say he won’t talk to Saakashvili. Putin’s refusal to dialogue about what will happen next - troop withdrawals, territorial negotiations, etc. – makes regime change the first requirement for progress and peace. And Putin is hoping he can pressure the EU into pressuring Saakashvili into resigning so “peace talks” can progress.
As Charles Krauthammer points out, a key benefit of Russian control of Georgia is that Moscow would control the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. This is the only major European-bound pipeline for Caspian Sea oil that does not already pass through Russia. With Putin’s boot heel pressed firmly on Georgia’s neck, Moscow would become lord and master of the Caspian oil basin. And send an unambiguous signal to the entire region about who is really Boss.
So, what to do?
Here’s Krauthammer’s list of possible measures to be deployed if Russia does not live up to its cease-fire commitments. It’s so excellent that I am going to post it verbatim:
1. Suspend the NATO-Russia Council established in 2002 to help bring Russia closer to the West. Make clear that dissolution will follow suspension. The council gives Russia a seat at the NATO table. Message: Invading neighboring democracies forfeits the seat.
2. Bar Russian entry to the World Trade Organization.
3. Dissolve the G-8. Putin’s dictatorial presence long made it a farce but no one wanted to upset the bear by expelling it. No need to. The seven democracies simply withdraw. Then immediately announce the reconstitution of the original G-7.
4. Announce a U.S.-European boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi. To do otherwise would be obscene. Sochi is 15 miles from Abkhazia, the other Georgian province just invaded by Russia. The Games will become a riveting contest between the Russian, Belarusian and Jamaican bobsled teams.
Krauthammer suggests that all of these steps (except dissolution of the G-8, which would be permanent) would be subject to “reconsideration” depending on what ensues. All could be taken back after the Russian withdrawal of troops. In any case, we absolutely ought to support the Saakashvili government.
Condi is headed to France and then on to Georgia. We’ll see how well she does, i.e. whether she can convince the EU to agree to sanctions - and begin imposing them.
